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Ocean temperatures have warmed in the fjords surrounding the Greenland Ice Sheet, causing increased melt along their ice fronts and rapid glacier retreat and contributing to rising global sea levels. However, there are many physical mechanisms that can mediate the glacier response to ocean warming and variability. Warm ocean waters can directly cause melt at horizontal and vertical ice interfaces or promote iceberg calving by weakening proglacial melange or undercutting the glacier front. Sermeq Kujalleq (also known as Jakobshavn Isbræ) is the largest and fastest glacier in Greenland and has undergone substantial retreat, which started in the late 1990s. In this study, we use an ensemble modeling approach to disentangle the dominant mechanisms that drive the retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq. Within this ensemble, we vary the sensitivity of three different glaciological parameters to ocean temperature: frontal melt, subshelf melt, and a calving-stress threshold. Comparing results to the observed retreat behavior from 1985 to 2018, we select a best-fitting simulation which reproduces the observed retreat well. In this simulation, the arrival of warm water at the front of Sermeq Kujalleq in the late 1990s led to enhanced rates of subshelf melt, triggering the disintegration of the floating ice tongue over a decade. The recession of the calving front into a substantially deeper bed trough around 2010 accelerated the calving-driven retreat, which continued nearly unabated despite local ocean cooling in 2016. An extended ensemble of simulations with varying calving thresholds shows evidence of hysteresis in the calving rate, which can only be inhibited by a substantial increase in the calving-stress threshold beyond the values suggested for the historical period. Our findings indicate that accurate simulation of rapid calving-driven glacier retreats requires more sophisticated models of iceberg mélange and calving evolution coupled to ice flow models. 

The collapse of ice shelves could expose tall ice cliffs at ice sheet margins. The marine ice cliff instability (MICI) is a hypothesis that predicts that, if these cliffs are tall enough, ice may fail structurally leading to self-sustained retreat. To date, projections that include MICI have been performed with a single model based on a simple parameterization. Here, we implement a physically motivated parameterization in three ice sheet models and simulate the response of the Amundsen Sea Embayment after a hypothetical collapse of floating ice. All models show that Thwaites Glacier would not retreat further in the 21st century. In another set of simulations, we force the grounding line to retreat into Thwaites’ deeper basin to expose a taller cliff. In these simulations, rapid thinning and velocity increase reduce the calving rate, stabilizing the cliff. These experiments show that Thwaites may be less vulnerable to MICI than previously thought, and model projections that include this process should be re-evaluated. 

Abstract. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions. 

Abstract Sea-level rise projections rely on accurate predictions of ice mass loss from Antarctica. Climate change promotes greater mass loss by destabilizing ice shelves and accelerating the discharge of upstream grounded ice. Mass loss is further exacerbated by mechanisms such as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and the Marine Ice Cliff Instability. However, the effect of basal thermal state changes of grounded ice remains largely unexplored. Here, we use numerical ice sheet modeling to investigate how warmer basal temperatures could affect the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. We find increased mass loss in response to idealized basal thawing experiments run over 100 years. Most notably, frozen-bed patches could be tenuously sustaining the current ice configuration in parts of George V, Adélie, Enderby, and Kemp Land regions of East Antarctica. With less than 5 degrees of basal warming, these frozen patches may begin to thaw, producing new loci of mass loss. 

Abstract. Time-dependent simulations of ice sheets require two equations to be solved:the mass transport equation, derived from the conservation of mass, and thestress balance equation, derived from the conservation of momentum. The masstransport equation controls the advection of ice from the interior of the icesheet towards its periphery, thereby changing its geometry. Because it isbased on an advection equation, a stabilization scheme needs to beemployed when solved using the finite-element method. Several stabilizationschemes exist in the finite-element method framework, but their respectiveaccuracy and robustness have not yet been systematically assessed forglaciological applications. Here, we compare classical schemes used in thecontext of the finite-element method: (i) artificial diffusion, (ii)streamline upwinding, (iii) streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin, (iv)discontinuous Galerkin, and (v) flux-corrected transport. We also look at thestress balance equation, which is responsible for computing the ice velocitythat “advects” the ice downstream. To improve the velocity computationaccuracy, the ice-sheet modeling community employs several sub-elementparameterizations of physical processes at the grounding line, the point wherethe grounded ice starts to float onto the ocean. Here, we introduce a newsub-element parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives theice-sheet flow. We analyze the response of each stabilization scheme byrunning transient simulations forced by ice-shelf basal melt. The simulationsare based on an idealized ice-sheet geometry for which there is no influenceof bedrock topography. We also perform transient simulations of the AmundsenSea Embayment, West Antarctica, where real bedrock and surface elevations areemployed. In both idealized and real ice-sheet experiments, stabilizationschemes based on artificial diffusion lead systematically to a bias towardsmore mass loss in comparison to the other schemes and therefore should beavoided or employed with a sufficiently high mesh resolution in the vicinityof the grounding line. We also run diagnostic simulations to assess theaccuracy of the driving stress parameterization, which, in combination with anadequate parameterization for basal stress, provides improved numericalconvergence in ice speed computations and more accurate results. 

Abstract. Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales. 

Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the formof simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone icesheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project forCMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup forprocess-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-aloneGreenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. TheISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanicCMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertaintyin projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIPmodels, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions.We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework andimplementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to beused by participating ice sheet modeling groups.